UK Coronavirus statistical analysis (real stats!) – Week ending 19th April

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For the last month (every day), I’ve been tracking running a brief analysis of the UK’s daily Coronavirus statistics. (Statistics published by Government).

Every day, I crunch the Coronavirus stats which are released by the UK Government / Department of Health, so we can track how much COVID-19 is spreading, and to look for inconsistencies.

If you would like to see the daily statistics first follow me here.

Before I start (and as this is the first blog version), let me provide some methodology.

  • My analysis focuses on the Rises (and falls) in the daily stats so we can more accurately track the virus spread and potential for death.
  • I express all changes in percentages and whole numbers.
  • I work out the average spread/number of daily deaths so we can track how fast COVID19 is spreading.
  • Using the stats provided, we project the Virus may do in the next few days.
  • ALL stats used are obtained daily from the Department of Health and held in an independently counted spreadsheet.


Statistics released by the Department of Health on 20th April 2020 (As of 9 am 20 April)

Positive cases

  • Total : 124,743
  • Yesterday : 4,676
  • Up : 3.89%

Yesterday’s 3.89% rise in positive cases continues with the lowest percentage rise in COVID-19 cases since February. As predicted, we are firmly within the peak period, with the daily increases holding under 6% per day for the last 9 days.

This shows that the UK’s Lockdown has had a marked effect on the spread of Coronavirus. It is debatable how Government can slow the spread any more without more testing and PPE.

People tested

  • Total  :  386,044
  • Yesterday : 13,077 (Gov Reported 14,106)

Coronavirus deaths

  • Total : 16,509
  • Yesterday : 449
  • Up : 2.79%


Charts (showing data up to 20th April)

Total Positive COVID-19 cases : Chart showing daily increases up to 20 April (Red line shows averages).

total positive cases 20th April


Total COVID-19 deaths: Chart showing daily increases up to 20 April (Red line shows averages).

Total COVID19 deaths day-to-day to to 20th April

7 Day UK Coronavirus Averages 

Positive cases are currently rising at 5% per day. (around 5160 cases per day)

Deaths (in Hospital) are currently rising at 5.53% per day. (around 740 deaths per day).

At the moment, the Department of Health (UK government) are testing around 13617 people per-day.

UK Coronavirus weekly averages 14th - 20th April

Based on the current UK Coronavirus statistics for the last 7 days, the next 3 days could look like this.

3 day uk coronavirus projection 21st 22nd 23rd april

Projections are based on statistical averages from the last 7 days.


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